SPEAKER:
Sihame Bahri, Global Omnichannel Lead, CSL Vifor
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
• Machine learning-powered MMM optimized promotional strategy across eight European markets
• Analysis revealed 81% of promotional spend in lower-ROI in-person channels versus digital alternatives
• Germany achieved 10% incremental sales uplift through channel reallocation with no budget increase
• Minimum 12 months of robust CRM data is essential for model credibility with leadership
• CSL Vifor is scaling MMM capability enterprise-wide across the nephrology portfolio and pre-LOE markets
"Do you know what drives your growth or do you just think you know?" Sihame Bahri asked pharma executives. "Imagine this, your dashboards are green and your channels are active. But which one truly moves the needle?" For CSL Vifor's Global Omnichannel Lead, this captured the strategic tension as a mature IV iron therapy entered LOE in 2023. Despite sophisticated omnichannel campaigns and strong engagement metrics, there was still uncertainty.
"We still questioned, is it really driving sales? Are they vanity metrics?" Bahri explained. "My customers don't see your global campaign... we could not feel 100% confident that they were really driving growth." This confidence gap between promotional activity and sales impact pushed CSL Vifor toward an analytics-powered transformation.
"The loss of exclusivity for a pharma brand feels like the Great Depression when we're entering the loss of exclusivity stage," Bahri observed, drawing a parallel to a period when companies had to prove marketing's value rather than assume it. For CSL Vifor—a leader in IV iron therapies for over half a century—the LOE brand had delivered strong performance for 15-plus years through new indications, cross-therapy campaigns, and advanced digital execution. The product enjoyed "love brand" status among HCPs, supported by aggressive omnichannel integration.
Yet generic competition challenged whether promotional investments would continue to deliver returns. Instead of defensive budget cuts, CSL Vifor made a counterintuitive choice: invest in comprehensive analytics to "face the truth even if it would hurt." Initial MMM in two early-generic markets revealed that despite pricing pressure, the brand remained highly promotional and sales still responded to activity. This justified scaling the analytical approach rather than retreating from promotion.
"Marketing mix modeling is not just simple regression models as it used to be," Bahri emphasized. "Now in 2025 it's a very sophisticated tool combining machine learning and generative AI." The MMM capability CSL Vifor deployed shifted from retrospective measurement to predictive simulation—moving from "measuring the past" to simulating "the future, which I think we are all dreaming of."
CSL Vifor partnered with IQVIA to build an eight-market European model integrating global and local promotional data from CRM, including in-person rep activity, digital engagements, and global brand campaigns. Bahri positioned herself as a business rather than analytics expert: "I'm not an analytics person so I won't lecture you on analytics." That business lens was crucial for translating insights into action.
The data exposed a striking misalignment between spend and performance. "Across eight markets, eight European markets, the promotional mix was heavily weighted—81% of total spend toward in-person channels," Bahri reported. While face-to-face engagement remained critical for key accounts, "their ROI was lower than digital and hybrid channels."
She clarified this was not about undermining the field force: "I'm not saying that reps don't have a high ROI. It's more like they were not using properly the different digital channels that were offered to them."
The ROI gap was substantial. "Channels like rep-triggered email, phone calls and mass email campaigns delivered us outstanding ROI," Bahri said, "sometimes up to 18 times ROI and of course with lower cost and higher scalability." Not all reps recorded digital touchpoints in CRM, suggesting actual digital effectiveness may be understated. Global initiatives such as Home of Iron and Medscape partnerships showed consistent incremental sales impact across countries, validating investments that had previously faced internal skepticism.
CSL Vifor used a two-step modeling approach. Sub-national sales and CRM data quantified promotional responsiveness at account level, while national-level inputs captured pricing, market events, and global campaigns. Machine learning algorithms estimated the share of sales driven by promotion—"impactable sales"—separating promotional impact from baseline brand equity. With this relationship established, the team ran optimization simulations across different spend scenarios to identify sales-maximizing channel mixes.
Two core scenarios emerged. Scenario A reallocated spend with no budget increase, improving ROI from 5.1x to 5.8x across the eight markets. Scenario B modeled a 25% incremental investment into high-performing channels, projecting even higher sales impact.
"The insight is quite clear," Bahri summarized. "Simplify the promotional mix and shift from resource-heavy to data-driven digital engagements yields higher efficacy without increasing expenses."
Germany offered the most compelling proof of concept. "In Germany... we saw 10% incremental sales uplift with no budget increase," she noted. "Simply by optimizing the mix, it proves that data-driven decision-making can deliver real measurable impact." This was especially significant in Germany's highly regulated, access-limited environment and as the first LOE/generic market. The 25% investment scenario more than doubled incremental gains, giving leadership confidence that optimization could scale beyond a single brand.
Foundational requirements were non-negotiable. "If you don't have enough touchpoints recorded in your CRM for at least 12 months, just forget about it. It will not fly," Bahri stated. CSL Vifor defined robust models as those with R-squared above 0.1, deliberately excluding campaigns with weak statistical significance. This selective approach—prioritizing validity over exhaustive coverage—was critical for leadership credibility.
Partnerships operated on two levels. IQVIA provided technical and methodological expertise, while strong internal sponsorship—from CSL Vifor's Head of Commercial Europe—secured funding and organizational commitment. Country commercial teams joined validation workshops to ensure model assumptions reflected market reality. "We validated them with workshops to ensure that the model assumptions were meeting the truth. So we were always ensuring that what the model tells is matching the reality."
The cultural shift was substantial. Some marketers initially feared the findings would invalidate their work. Bahri emphasized the need for "resilience and continuous learning mindset" and readiness to "face the hard truth." Executive sponsorship helped the team "trust the process" through inevitable skepticism.
The benefits were tangible. A global team member secured budget for a previously overlooked campaign. Country teams had intuitive beliefs quantified and confirmed. Sales leadership used MMM outputs to prioritize activities for cycle planning.
"The true value of analytics is not just in the numbers," Bahri reflected. "Analytics brings confidence. Confidence that gives teams to make faster, smarter evidence-based decisions." This shift—from uncertainty about whether high-engagement campaigns truly moved sales to evidence-based resource allocation—was the core organizational outcome.
What began as an attempt to clarify whether omnichannel engagement translated to sales became a replicable enterprise capability. CSL Vifor is now extending MMM across its nephrology portfolio and, critically, into pre-LOE markets. This marks a move from reactive LOE defense to proactive lifecycle optimization.
Bahri reframed the central budget question: "Imagine if every budget discussion started not with how much can we spend but with how much can we earn from what we already have?" Scenario modeling enables portfolio-level trade-offs based on marginal returns across brands, rather than uniform cuts when financial pressure hits.
She reiterated: "The true value of analytics is not just in the numbers... analytics brings confidence," linking tactical channel optimization to strategic decision-making.
Beyond CSL Vifor, the LOE implications are broader. Their data indicated generic competitors typically do not invest in growing markets or addressing unmet needs, leaving headroom for branded leaders to continue driving category expansion post-LOE. "As leaders we still need to invest," Bahri stressed. But promotional responsiveness must be measured, not assumed, as effectiveness varies by therapy area, prescriber dynamics, and competitive context.
Machine learning models now guide investment decisions enterprise-wide at CSL Vifor, creating advantage not from one standout campaign but from superior resource allocation intelligence. As credibility builds, adoption spreads across business units. What started as an effort to optimize one mature brand's promotional mix during LOE has evolved into a core organizational competency—changing how CSL Vifor evaluates every marketing investment and, ultimately, how confidently it grows in the face of generic competition.
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