The statistic haunts every pharma launch team: only one in five failed launches can recover. For Simone Rebora, Global Marketing Director, this number defines the entire customer engagement imperative. "20% is the number when we say that only 20% of the failed launches are able to significantly change the trajectory or better improve their launch," he explained. Operating across 190-plus countries with complex hematology-oncology products, Rebora has learned that the margin for error is minimal and the consequences of poor execution are nearly permanent.
"If I launch badly, I have only a 20% chance to make my bad launch into a good launch. So it's practically very, very low," he stated. His framework for launch excellence challenges conventional wisdom about AI adoption, content strategy, and the fundamentals that most organizations skip. The stakes are clear: get it right the first time, or face an 80% probability of permanent underperformance.
The Fundamentals-First Philosophy in Global Markets
While the industry rushes toward AI and advanced analytics, Rebora offers a sobering warning from six years of next best action (NBA) implementation. The problem isn't technology capability—it's strategic readiness. Organizations deploying sophisticated tools without foundational customer knowledge are building on unstable ground, creating expensive systems that can't deliver value because basic questions remain unanswered.
"If we don't fix the basics, we can forget about AI. I daily speak with external partners that propose amazing tools to me. But we don't know how we can use them," Rebora said. Before considering AI-driven personalization or predictive analytics, launch teams must answer fundamental questions: Where are patients? What are prescriber volumes? Who are the actual customers?
This isn't data that can be inferred—it requires direct intelligence gathering, sometimes as straightforward as knocking on doors and asking. "How many patients do we have, where are they, and how many high prescribers can we have? We don't need AI. We have to go to the HCPs, knock on the door and ask," he emphasized.
This fundamentals-first philosophy stems from practical experience managing launches across massive geographic complexity. "In EMEA we have more than 100 countries, in the Americas more than 30," Rebora noted. He has seen external partners propose "amazing tools" that organizations can't effectively use because strategic clarity is missing. The result: technology adoption without impact, innovation initiatives without outcomes, and digital transformation programs that fail to transform anything meaningful.
The sequence matters critically. Customer identification must precede targeting and profiling. Targeting must precede persona creation. Personas must precede message library development. Only after these foundations are solid can NBA engines and AI assistants add value. "I started working on my NBA more than six years ago," Rebora shared, highlighting the extended timeline required for meaningful implementation.
Balancing Comprehensive Libraries with Communication Discipline
The tension in pharma content strategy is genuine: prescribers need comprehensive information across diverse clinical scenarios, yet cognitive limits demand simplicity. Rebora's resolution is architectural—a comprehensive message library enabling AI-driven recommendations, while human communication maintains disciplined focus on core differentiation.
Message libraries should contain roughly 40–50 key messages, varying based on clinical trial volume and subgroup analyses. This comprehensiveness enables AI systems to match content to specific contexts, markets, and customer characteristics. However, when human account managers engage prescribers directly, only three core differentiation elements should be communicated—distilled to fit a 15-second elevator pitch.
"I always say to my team: three key elements of differentiation, not more. Then we can talk about personas, about the next best action content. But if I had to meet the customers in the elevator, in the famous elevator pitch, 15 seconds, three elements and stop," Rebora stated. The library scales; the human message doesn't.
However, this architecture demands significant upfront investment and rigorous discipline. Content must be developed across the full library before launch, not iteratively added afterward. More critically, every message requires testing before deployment—through advisory boards, market research, or AI validation.
"Before delivering the key messages and the right content to incorporate in the next best action, please test them because if you make a mistake, you're going to waste time for two, three months," Rebora warned. The cost of content errors in launch scenarios is measured in months, not weeks. In an environment where the first six to nine months determine trajectory, losing two to three months to untested messaging can shift a launch from the recovering 20% to the failing 80%.
Why Launch Trajectory Becomes Fixed Quickly
Launch timing creates unforgiving dynamics. Rebora's experience across hematology-oncology products reveals that the first six to nine months establish trajectory in ways that become nearly impossible to alter afterward. "The first six months make the launch—maybe six is quite challenging. We can say nine months, but after nine months we have launched. If we fail, don't forget it—only a 20% chance to change the trajectory," he explained.
This compressed window demands that all elements—customer intelligence, targeting, personas, message libraries, engagement infrastructure—be operational at launch, not developed iteratively. Geographic complexity amplifies this challenge: diverse healthcare systems, regulations, languages, and cultures, plus exogenous factors such as geopolitical and economic conditions and entrenched competition.
The strategic question becomes how to maximize influence over controllable elements: customer engagement, content strategy, channel optimization, and timing precision. Traditional approaches often underfund pre-launch preparation, assuming that issues can be fixed post-launch. But if trajectory is largely fixed after nine months, and only 20% of poor launches recover, that assumption is demonstrably false.
Investment must therefore shift upstream—to customer identification, message testing, and engagement infrastructure—even if this extends preparation timelines or delays launch dates. The alternative is accepting an 80% probability of permanent underperformance. In competitive therapeutic areas with significant commercial stakes, that's not a risk; it's a near-certainty.
Integrating Strategic Intelligence with Tactical Preparation
Despite six years implementing NBA systems, Rebora identifies a capability gap that represents the next evolution in customer engagement: integrating strategic content recommendations with individual HCP-level AI simulation for call preparation.
Current systems typically operate at the persona or segment level—recommending content based on behavioral patterns or archetypes. Similarly, AI training avatars usually represent generic personas rather than specific physicians.
Rebora envisions connecting these capabilities in transformative ways. "What I'm still missing is creating an ideal avatar per single HCP where my key account manager can train, can, let's say, have what I call call optimization," he explained. Account managers would receive NBA recommendations for a specific doctor, then practice the conversation with an AI avatar trained on that individual physician's characteristics, preferences, and communication style before the actual call.
This integration would address the translation gap between strategic recommendation and effective execution. Knowing what to discuss matters, but so does knowing how to discuss it with this specific person. The approach would also create continuous feedback loops—real-time insights from field interactions would inform both content optimization and avatar refinement, enabling day-to-day improvement during critical launch windows rather than waiting for formal research cycles.
Rebora acknowledges this integration remains aspirational. The technical requirements are substantial: connecting CRM, NBA, and simulation platforms; developing AI sophisticated enough for believable individual representation; and gathering sufficient data for HCP-specific modeling. Ethical considerations around the depth of physician profiling also require careful navigation.
Yet the direction is clear. As pharma customer engagement matures beyond segment-level personalization toward true one-to-one preparation, organizations that successfully integrate strategic intelligence with tactical simulation will create competitive advantage in an environment where first-time execution determines outcomes. For launch teams operating under the shadow of that 20% recovery statistic, the ability to prepare account managers for individual physician conversations—with both the right content and the right delivery approach—could represent the difference between trajectory success and permanent underperformance.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
• Only 20% of failed pharma launches successfully change trajectory after poor starts
• Fundamental customer intelligence must precede AI deployment across all markets
• Message discipline requires exactly three core differentiation elements for memorability
• The critical launch window spans six to nine months before trajectory becomes fixed
• Next best action integration with HCP-specific AI avatars represents the frontier
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